Research papers Our research has been critically tested and refined through academic peer-review over the past 15 years and published in world-leading scientific journals.

• Mitchell, D.,
• Hawker, L.,
• Savage, J.,
• Bingham, R.,
• Lord, N.,
• Khan, J.,
• Bates, P.,
• Durand, F.,
• Hassan, A.,
• Huq, S.,
• Islam, A.,
• Krien, Y.,
• Neal, J.,
• Sampson, C.,
• Smith, A.,
• Testut, L.

In 2020 Cyclone Amphan made landfall in the Bay of Bengal and was the first super tropical cyclonic storm to occur in the area in over 20 years. This paper explores what would happen if this event were to occur in the future, asking: would the risks associated with it change?

• Hawker, L.,
• Uhe, P.,
• Paulo, L.,
• Sosa, J.,
• Savage, J.,
• Sampson, C.,
• Neal, J.

This work signifies one of the biggest step-changes in global flood modelling capabilities since the advent of the field.

• Wing, O.,
• Lehman, W.,
• Bates, P.,
• Sampson, C.,
• Quinn, N.,
• Smith, A.,
• Neal, J.,
• Porter, J.,
• Kousky, C.

Climate change will have major impact on cost of flooding, according to pioneering research led by Dr Oliver Wing, Chief Research Officer at Fathom

• Bates, P.

This review surveys recent progress made to address fundamental issues surrounding globally consistent mapping of flood hazard in underdeveloped countries. This is achieved through a novel combination of appropriate physics, efficient numerical algorithms, high-performance computing, new sources of big data, and model automation frameworks.

• Bradt, J.,
• Kousky, C.,
• Wing, O.

In a wide-ranging analysis in collaboration with Jacob Bradt (Harvard) and Carolyn Kousky (Wharton), we find voluntary insurance purchases are preferentially taking place in areas where Fathom’s model deviates from FEMA flood maps.

• Chone, G.,
• Biron, P.,
• Buffin-Bélanger, T.,
• Mazgareanu, I.,
• Neal, J.,
• Sampson, C.

In this paper we collaborated with colleagues at the University of Concordia to demonstrate the value of bathymetry estimation in large scale model frameworks by testing across four watersheds in Quebec, Canada.

• Merz, B.,
• Blöschl, G.,
• Vorogushyn, S.,
• Dottori, F.,
• Aerts, J.,
• Bates, P.,
• Bertola, M.,
• Kreibich, H.,
• Lall, U.,
• Macdonald, E.

Paul Bates contributes to a significant review in Nature of the causes and impacts of disastrous river flooding, and their past and projected trends.

• Brand, M.,
• Quesnel, K.,
• Saksa, P.,
• Ulibarri, N.,
• Bomblies, A.,
• Mandle, L.,
• Allaire, M.,
• Wing, O.,
• Tobin-de la Puente, J.,
• Parker, E.

Environment Impact Bonds (EIBs) are in their infancy, yet are increasingly recognised as a funding solution to tackle the world’s most pressing environmental challenges. Our contribution, alongside colleagues at The Nature Conservancy, discusses how recent developments to flood models at scale can help to inform both the principal and the repayment interest rate for flood mitigation projects, such as floodplain conservation.

• Wehner, M.,
• Sampson, C.

Using Fathom’s US flood model to examine how climate change exacerbated the impact of Hurricane Harvey, which devastated Houston in 2017.

• Neal, J.,
• Hawker, L.,
• Durand, M.,
• Bates, P.,
• Sampson, C.,
• Savage, J.

In this technical paper, we discuss the importance of estimating channel bathymetry in data-sparse areas. We demonstrate that the application of gradually varied flow theory to estimate bathymetry in a global flood model reduced model error compared to a target water surface profile by 66%.

• Wing, O.,
• Smith, A.,
• Marston, M.,
• Porter, J.,
• Amodeo, M.,
• Sampson, C.,
• Bates, P.

This paper discusses the challenges of using observed historical flood events to validate large-scale models.

• Tate, E.,
• Rahman, M.,
• Emrich, C.,
• Sampson, C.

This study explores the geography of flood exposure and social vulnerability in the conterminous United States, and finds racial minorities and mobile-home occupiers in rural Southern communities to be over-represented where exposure and social vulnerability converge.