Research papers Our research has been critically tested and refined through academic peer-review over the past 15 years and published in world-leading scientific journals.

• Smiley, K.,
• Noy, I.,
• Wehner, M.,
• Frame, D.,
• Sampson, C.,
• Wing, O.

This research uses attribution science to examine the influence that climate change had on the damage caused by Hurricane Harvey in 2017. 

• Slingo, J.,
• Bates, P.,
• Bauer, P.,
• Belcher, S.,
• Palmer, T.,
• Stephens, G.,
• Stevens, B.,
• Stocker, T.,
• Teutsch, G.

In this paper, researchers state that an improved climate model with higher detail and more precise information is needed urgently  to enable us to make reliable decisions around climate adaptation.

• Pregnolato, M.,
• Winter, A.,
• Mascarenas, D.,
• Sen, A.,
• Bates, P.,
• Motley, M.

This paper establishes new modelling approaches for the design and assessment of transportation and water systems with the aim to understand the consequences of flooding on urban networks.

• Mitchell, D.,
• Hawker, L.,
• Savage, J.,
• Bingham, R.,
• Lord, N.,
• Khan, J.,
• Bates, P.,
• Durand, F.,
• Hassan, A.,
• Huq, S.,
• Islam, A.,
• Krien, Y.,
• Neal, J.,
• Sampson, C.,
• Smith, A.,
• Testut, L.

In 2020 Cyclone Amphan made landfall in the Bay of Bengal and was the first super tropical cyclonic storm to occur in the area in over 20 years. This paper explores what would happen if this event were to occur in the future, asking: would the risks associated with it change?

• Hawker, L.,
• Uhe, P.,
• Paulo, L.,
• Sosa, J.,
• Savage, J.,
• Sampson, C.,
• Neal, J.

This work signifies one of the biggest step-changes in global flood modelling capabilities since the advent of the field.

• Wing, O.,
• Lehman, W.,
• Bates, P.,
• Sampson, C.,
• Quinn, N.,
• Smith, A.,
• Neal, J.,
• Porter, J.,
• Kousky, C.

Climate change will have major impact on cost of flooding, according to pioneering research led by Dr Oliver Wing, Chief Research Officer at Fathom

• Bates, P.

This review surveys recent progress made to address fundamental issues surrounding globally consistent mapping of flood hazard in underdeveloped countries. This is achieved through a novel combination of appropriate physics, efficient numerical algorithms, high-performance computing, new sources of big data, and model automation frameworks.

• Zhao, G.,
• Bates, P.,
• Neal, J.,
• Pang, B.

Design flood estimation is a fundamental task in hydrology. In this research led by Dr Zhao, researchers propose a machine-learning-based approach to estimate design floods globally.

• Bradt, J.,
• Kousky, C.,
• Wing, O.

In a wide-ranging analysis in collaboration with Jacob Bradt (Harvard) and Carolyn Kousky (Wharton), we find voluntary insurance purchases are preferentially taking place in areas where Fathom’s model deviates from FEMA flood maps.

• Chone, G.,
• Biron, P.,
• Buffin-Bélanger, T.,
• Mazgareanu, I.,
• Neal, J.,
• Sampson, C.

In this paper we collaborated with colleagues at the University of Concordia to demonstrate the value of bathymetry estimation in large scale model frameworks by testing across four watersheds in Quebec, Canada.

• Merz, B.,
• Blöschl, G.,
• Vorogushyn, S.,
• Dottori, F.,
• Aerts, J.,
• Bates, P.,
• Bertola, M.,
• Kreibich, H.,
• Lall, U.,
• Macdonald, E.

Paul Bates contributes to a significant review in Nature of the causes and impacts of disastrous river flooding, and their past and projected trends.

• Brand, M.,
• Quesnel, K.,
• Saksa, P.,
• Ulibarri, N.,
• Bomblies, A.,
• Mandle, L.,
• Allaire, M.,
• Wing, O.,
• Tobin-de la Puente, J.,
• Parker, E.

Environment Impact Bonds (EIBs) are in their infancy, yet are increasingly recognised as a funding solution to tackle the world’s most pressing environmental challenges. Our contribution, alongside colleagues at The Nature Conservancy, discusses how recent developments to flood models at scale can help to inform both the principal and the repayment interest rate for flood mitigation projects, such as floodplain conservation.