Emergency Event Forecasts 22.02.2022

Cyclone Emnati, Madagascar 2022

Intro Tropical Cyclone Emnati is the fourth tropical cyclone to make landfall on Madagascar in five weeks.

Event start

21st February (estimated gusts reaching 140mph)

Date of forecast

20.2.2022

Report issuing date

21st February 2022

Report Partners

Today Tropical Cyclone Emnati made landfall across the east coast of Madagascar.

The storm will bring intense winds (estimated 115 mph winds and 130-140 mph gusts) and heavy rainfall. Classified as a category 3 cyclone, Emnati is forecasted to take the same journey as Storm Batsirai which hit the region one week earlier. 

In collaboration with partners, Fathom has produced a pre-event weather forecast that will inform event response from the FCDO. 

The emergency bulletin, issued on 21st February, predicts that southeast Madagascar will experience rainfall totals >150mm during the 22nd and 23rd of February, with heavily impacted areas potentially receiving up to 600mm of rain during this period.

The above image, produced by researchers at the University of Bristol and underpinned by data from ECMWF, GLOFAS and Fathom, estimates the highest percentage of people exposed per district to the return period flood hazard indicated by the reasonable worst-case scenario.

Regions of Madagascar with the highest exposure to flooding include:

Vatovavy-Fitovinany Region

Exposure estimate: ~92,000
Most at-risk districts: Manakara-Sud; Mananjary; Vohipeno, Nosy Varika
~570,000 in current acute food insecurity.

Atsimo-Atsinana Region

Exposure estimate: ~54,000
Most at-risk districts: Farafangana; Vangaindrano
~825,000 in current acute food insecurity.

Researchers working on this bulletin have estimated that most flood risk will come from pluvial and fluvial flooding (in excess of a 1-in-20 year flood) driven by heavy rainfall. 

Whilst surge will be a minor contributor to overall risk and exposure, the report also analyses coastal flooding. To produce these forecasts, researchers have used data derived from FABDEM and WorldPop.

Map showing population exposure to the 1 in 20-year flood hazard in Mananjary District, Vatovavy- Fitovinany Region. Includes evacuation sites from Tropical Cyclone Batsirai sourced from Map Action.

These data have identified several low-lying districts that may be at risk of storm-surge related flooding. Impacted regions include Nosy Varika, Mahanroro, Mananjary and Manakara-Sud.

This month, Fathom has also produced an emergency bulletin in response to Cyclone Batsiarai. You can read about this here.

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