Emergency Event Forecasts 22.01.2021

Cyclone Eloise, Mozambique 2021


Over the weekend, tropical cyclone Eloise made headway across the coast of Mozambique, causing high winds, heavy rains and severe flooding.

Event start

22/23 January 2021 (Cyclone landfall at 00:00 UTC, 23 January)

Date of forecast


Report issuing date

22nd January 2021

Sources from OCHA Regional Office for Southern Eastern Africa have revealed that approximately 163,000 people have been affected by the storm, with 7,000 people being displaced.

The storm comes in the wake of the busiest storm season on record.  The region is still recovering from Cylone Idai and Cyclone Kenneth, which devastated the region in 2019.

In order to support response efforts, last week Fathom contributed towards a multilateral Flood Emergency Report that analysed potential risk, exposure and impact of the storm prior to its arrival.

Figure 9: Flood hazard map for Beira, Sofala province, Mozambique (Buzi River). The map shows the 1 in 20 year fluvial flood hazard depth and coastal flood depth (blue to yellow), and the probability of exceeding the severe flood level (pink), which is low (unlikely) likelihood in this region (<25%). Exposed population is shown (black to yellow), as well as roads and airports.

Conducted alongside our partners at the University of Bristol, the University of Reading, the ECWMF, and HR Wallingford, this is part of an ongoing commitment to producing detailed impact reports for major weather events affecting developing countries. These reports are supplied to the UK Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office (UK FCDO).

By leveraging data from Fathom-Global 2.0, the UK FCDO are then able to use these reports to inform disaster response and recovery efforts made by the Red Cross and the Royal Navy.

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