Pricing the unpredictable: Protecting profit in a softening market

Articles 27.05.2026

As competition intensifies and risk evolves, underwriters rely on clearer insight to price with confidence

Introduction

Things are changing in the P&C insurance market. It’s transitioning from hard to soft, with high profitability and steep rate increases giving way to more intense competition and slower price growth.

Underwriters face pressure to price quickly and accurately and to make consistent, defensible decisions at speed. Added to this is the changeability of global flood risk itself – it’s a hazard that’s surging into new regions and reshaping everything we know of flooding across every continent. All of this means that flood underwriting is harder than ever.

“It’s a tricky balance that’s all too familiar to seasoned underwriters: protecting profitability while remaining competitive. This is a multi-billion-dollar question, and one that’s difficult to answer in a world of climate uncertainty.”

Drawing from our playbook for underwriters, this insight offers a glimpse into how to leverage validated flood data to find opportunities in the current reality of flood underwriting.

The dilemma: Balancing profitability while remaining competitive

So – how can underwriters achieve this balance? 

As climate change increases uncertainty and reshapes risk patterns, traditional models are becoming less reliable, requiring insurers to adopt more agile approaches and develop advanced risk insights to stay competitive.

Rising climate risk provides a valuable opportunity for proactive underwriters to diversify, expand their margins, and boost their resilience. Here, niche models offer a strategic advantage, giving flood underwriters the insight they need to manage the fluctuating complexities and uncertainty of climate risk.

The advantages of niche next-gen flood models

Scientific transparency

“Glass box” approach. Methods are openly documented and published in peer‑reviewed journals, providing confidence and defensibility

Global consistency and scale

Designed for global use with consistent methodology across regions, including data‑scarce areas

Customization and user integration

Highly customizable (e.g. user‑supplied vulnerability, local defense assumptions, bespoke inputs for pricing and accumulation) to create actionable view of risk

Scientific foundation and data quality

Built on top‑tier terrain data and advanced hydrodynamic/ catastrophe infrastructure.

Fathom’s FathomDEM+, built on best-in-glass global elevation LiDAR data, being a key example

Uncertainty quantification

Advanced uncertainty representation empowers insurers to better understand how influencing factors such as terrain, climate or defense data may impact the certainty of flood risk

Underwriting usefulness

Enable underwriters to complete:

  • Property level risk assessment
  • Portfolio analytics and accumulation management
  • Pricing
  • Risk tiering
  • Scenario testing
Underwriters guide thumbnail

Rising flood risk brings new opportunities for differentiation

By harnessing the value and power of these next-gen tools, flood underwriters can make robust pricing decisions to diversify in a crowded market.

Find more guidance on how to improve flood risk decisions to protect your profitability and margins in our playbook!

How we can help insurers in underwriting?

By adopting science-based models of flood risk – such as Fathom’s Global Flood Map – underwriters can balance liability and competitiveness more effectively. Here’s why:

Go beyond ‘the black box’

The models are peer-reviewed, extensively validated and built on published data gives underwriters greater confidence in making robust, defensible, and well-informed decisions

Focus on accuracy

Validated models with high-quality data minimize the chance of taking on bad risks, improve risk differentiation, and enable precise ‘surgical’ underwriting.

Build for flexibility

Specialist single-peril models respond faster to evolving market views. Tailor and scale inputs – vulnerability, hazard, and proprietary data – for underwriters to build their own view of risk

Interested in this topic? Explore our playbook

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