The spatial dependence of flood hazard and risk in the USA
A paper describing our method for simulating the spatial dependence of realistic flood events across the USA.
Quinn, N., Bates, P., Neal, J., Smith, A., Wing, O., Sampson, C., Smith, J., Heffernan, J. 2019.Read paper
New estimates of flood exposure in developing countries using high-resolution population data
A Nature Comms publication in which we demonstrate the critical importance of having both high resolution hazard and high resolution population data when assessing at-risk populations.
Smith, A., Bates, P., Wing, O., Sampson, C., Quinn, N., Neal, J. 2019.Read paper
A flood inundation forecast of Hurricane Harvey using a continental-scale 2D hydrodynamic model
A paper describing our rapid flood forecasting model, tested against Hurricane Harvey
Wing, O., Sampson, C., Bates, P., Quinn, N., Smith, A., Neal, J. 2019.Read paper
Estimates of present and future flood risk in the conterminous United States
A collaboration with the US EPA and The Nature Conservancy to show that: a) previous estimates have significantly underestimated exposure of US population to flood risk; and b) that population and GDP growth are likely to cause this to further increase in future.
Wing, O., Bates, P., Smith, A., Sampson, C., Johnson, K., Fargione, J., Morefield, P. 2018.Read paper
Optimisation of the two-dimensional hydraulic model LISFOOD-FP for CPU architecture
Paper describing the optimisation of numerical solvers to further increase the computational efficiency of our simulations
Neal., J., Dunne, T., Sampson, C., Smith, A., Bates, P. 2018Read paper
Validation of a 30 m resolution flood hazard model of the conterminous United States
The first peer-reviewed validation of a continental-scale, high-resolution flood hazard model; this paper won the prestigious AGU Editors' Choice Award in 2018.
Wing, O., Bates, P., Sampson, C., Smith, A., Johnson, K., Erickson, T. 2017.Read paper
A high‐accuracy map of global terrain elevations
A significant set of systematic improvements to the SRTM terrain dataset produced by a project led by our colleague in Japan, Dai Yamazaki.
Yamazaki, D., Ikeshima, D., Tawatari, R., Yamaguchi, T., O'Loughlin, F., Neal, J., Sampson, C., Kanae, S., Bates, P. 2017.Read paper
The credibility challenge for global fluvial flood risk analysis
A collaborative paper that highlights the challenges posed by developing and refining the first generation of global flood hazard models.
Trigg, M., Birch, C., Neal, J., Bates, P., Smith, A., Sampson, C., Yamazaki, D., Hirabayashi, Y., Pappenberger, F., Dutra, E., Ward, P., Winsemius, H., Salamon, P., Dottori, F., Rudari, R., Kappes, M., Simpson, A., Hadzilacos, G., Fewtrell, T. 2016.Read paper
Rethinking flood hazard at the global scale
The first continuous long-term (1973-2012) high resolution simulation of river flow and flooding at the continental scale.
Schumann, G., Stampoulis, D., Smith, A., Sampson, C., Andreadis, K., Neal, J., Bates, P. 2016.Read paper
A high-resolution global flood hazard model
The paper describing the architecture of our Global Flood Model and validating its performance against local data.
Sampson, CC, Smith, AM, Bates, PB, Neal, JC, Alfieri, L & Freer, JE 2015.Read paper
Regional flood frequency analysis at the global scale
The paper describing our method for estimating extreme river flows anywhere on Earth.
Smith, A., Sampson, C., Bates, P. 2015.Read paper
Investigating the application of climate models in flood projection across the UK
A paper describing the challenges and uncertainties associated with the linking of climate models to flood models to assess future flood risk.
Smith, A, Bates, P, Freer, J & Wetterhall, F 2014.Read paper
The impact of uncertain precipitation data on insurance loss estimates using a flood catastrophe model
A paper describing the wide variety of CAT model results produced simply be differing the input rainfall data source.
Sampson, C., Fewtrell, T., O'Loughlin, F., Pappenberger, F., Bates, P., Freer, J., Cloake, H., 2014Read paper
Fight floods on a global scale
A call for action on global terrain data, published in the most prestigious scientific journal, ‘Nature’, that led to our invitation to participate in the White House Climate Data initiative under President Obama.
Schumann, G., Bates, P., Neal, J., Andreadis, K. 2014.Read paper
Probabilistic flood risk mapping including spatial dependence
A paper describing the characterisation and stochastic simulation of flood events on three converging rivers while considering the spatial dependence (i.e. correlation) of each river with its neighbours.
Neal, J., Keef, C., Bates, P., Beven, K., Leedal, D. 2013.Read paper
A subgrid channel model for simulating river hydraulics and floodplain inundation over large and data sparse areas
Another critical paper on the path to continental and global scale models, this time describing the representation of rivers smaller than the grid size of the model (the ‘subgrid’ method).
Neal, J., Schumann, G., Bates, P. 2012.Read paper
Benchmarking urban flood models of varying complexity and scale using high resolution terrestrial LiDAR data
A paper describing the simulation of flooding in urban areas at ultra-high resolution (50 cm).
Fewtrell, T., Duncan, A., Sampson, C., Neal, J., Bates, P. 2011.Read paper
A simple inertial formulation of the shallow water equations for efficient two dimensional flood inundation modelling
A hugely influential paper that describes a new mathematical formulation of the equations used to describe the flow of water within 2D flood models such as LISFLOOD-FP. This reduced the time required to simulate a flood event on a computer by an order of magnitude and allowed the concept of high resolution continental and global scale models to be considered for the first time. This paper led to Professor Paul Bates being awarded the ‘Science of Risk’ prize by the Lloyds insurance market in 2012.
Bates, P., Horritt, M., Fewtrell, T. 2010.Read paper
Distributed whole city water level measurements from the Carlisle 2005 urban flood event and comparison with hydraulic model simulations
A paper that presented the most comprehensive validation to-date of a simulated city-scale urban flood event using observed water level measurements.
Neal, J., Bates, P., Fewtrell, T., Hunter, N., Wilson, M., Horritt, M. 2009.Read paper
Evaluating the effect of scale in flood inundation modelling in urban environments
Around this time, 2D flood models were beginning to operate at scales applicable to urban environments. This paper offered one of the first critical analysis of key model parameters, such as grid resolution, when simulating floods in urban environments.
Fewtrell, T., Bates, P., Horritt, M., Hunter, N. 2008. Read paper
Reach scale floodplain inundation dynamics observed using airborne Synthetic Aperture Radar imagery: data analysis and modelling
A paper describing, for the first time, the use of a time series of satellite images of a real flood event on the River Severn to assess the dynamic performance of the LISFLOOD-FP simulation of the event.
Bates, P., Wilson, M., Horritt, M., Mason, D., Holden, N., Currie, A. 2006.Read paper
Remote sensing and flood inundation modelling
An invited commentary on the value of using new forms of remotely sensed data in flood modelling.
Bates, P. 2004.Read paper
Optimal use of high-resolution topographic data in flood inundation models
A paper describing the assimilation of high resolution topography into 2D flood models.
Bates, P., Marks, K., Horritt, M. 2003.Read paper
A simple raster-based model for floodplain inundation
A seminal paper (with over 1000 citations in the academic literature) that offers the first description of a grid-based 2D flood model. This format underlies most contemporary 2D flood models, and the engine at the heart of the Fathom models has its origins in the first ‘LISFLOOD-FP’ model described in this paper.
Bates, P., De Roo, A. 2000.Read paper
Integrating remote sensing observations of flood hydrology and hydraulic modelling
An early study demonstrating the potential of remotely sensed satellite data to help with the parameterization and validation of computational flood models.
Bates, P., Horritt, M., Smith, C., Mason, D. 1997.Read paper
An initial comparison of two 2-D finite element codes for river flood simulation
Professor Paul Bates compared two different finite element techniques, laying the foundation for future two-dimensional modelling techniques.
Bates, P., Anderson, M., Hervouet, J. 1995.Read paper
Modelling floodplain flows using a two-dimensional finite element model
Professor Paul Bates’ first published paper describing a 2D computer model of an 11 km stretch of river in the UK.
Bates, P., Anderson, M., Baird, L., Walling, D., Simm, D. 1992.Read paper